How should you set up deal stages so the pipeline forecast means something?
Summary
Name each stage after something that has visibly happened, give it a win probability based on how deals at that stage have actually closed, and let the CRM flag deals that sit still too long. The forecast a pipeline CRM shows is just deal value multiplied by those probabilities, so vague stages or untouched default percentages produce a number nobody should plan around. HubSpot ships with seven stages running from 20% to 90% before won or lost, and Pipedrive starts every stage at 100% until you change it.
Stage names that two people read the same way
| Vague stage | Stage tied to an event |
|---|---|
| Interested | Discovery call held |
| Promising | Budget and decision maker confirmed |
| In progress | Proposal sent |
| Almost done | Contract sent |
"Promising" means something different to every rep, so the same deal ends up in different columns depending on who owns it. An event either happened or it didn't. HubSpot's default stages already lean this way: Appointment scheduled (20%), Qualified to buy (40%), Presentation scheduled (60%), Decision maker bought-in (80%), Contract sent (90%), then Closed won (100%) and Closed lost (0%).
What the forecast number actually is
HubSpot calculates the weighted amount in board view by multiplying the total amount in each stage by that stage's probability. Three deals of $10,000, $6,000, and $4,000 sitting in Presentation scheduled add up to $20,000, and at 60% the board shows $12,000.
Pipedrive works the same way at the stage level. Its own help page shows a Lead In stage totaling $4,245.74 at 50%, for a weighted value of $2,122.87. It also lets you set a probability on an individual deal, and when you do, the deal's figure overrides the stage's. If neither is set, the weighted value equals the deal value.
That last rule is the trap. Pipedrive sets every stage to 100% by default, and a new pipeline opens as a five-stage sample, so a team that never touches the settings sees a forecast equal to the full value of every open deal. Turning on deal-level probability is limited to deals admin users.
Catching deals that have gone quiet
A deal that stalled weeks ago but still sits in a late stage inflates the forecast. Pipedrive's Rotting feature lets you set a number of days for each stage. Once a deal goes that long without an update, its tile turns red.
The clock runs from the deal's last update. Completing an activity, adding a note or file, or sending or receiving an email resets it. The next activity date is ignored, though, so a deal with a meeting booked weeks out can still go rotten while it waits.
Running more than one pipeline
Teams that sell to new customers and upsell existing ones often want separate stages for each. HubSpot's free tools can't create a custom pipeline at all. Starter allows 15, Professional 100 (350 under HubSpot's Flexible Seats & Credits pricing), and Enterprise 350, and that count is shared across every object that uses pipelines, not just deals. Pipedrive lets you run several pipelines side by side but can't combine them on one board, even when the stage names match.
Sources
- https://knowledge.hubspot.com/object-settings/set-up-and-customize-pipelines
- https://support.pipedrive.com/en/article/how-can-i-customize-my-pipeline-stages
- https://support.pipedrive.com/en/article/probability-in-pipedrive
- https://support.pipedrive.com/en/article/how-can-i-set-deal-probability
- https://support.pipedrive.com/en/article/the-rotting-feature
- https://support.pipedrive.com/en/article/how-can-i-have-multiple-pipelines
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Written by Kaz (pen name). Published September 27, 2026. The figures above come from the vendor and review-site pages listed under Sources. We have not used these products. Corrections: contact form.